Corn and soybeans: Projections for the 2023/2024 season USDA - June 2023

These are the highlights from the latest grain and oilseed estimates reports released by the USDA on June 9:

Corn

• World corn production for the new 2023/24 season is expected to reach 1222.8 million tons (Mt), an increase of 6.3% compared to the 2022/23 season (1150.7 Mt).

• United States production is expected to be around 387.7 Mt, an increase of 11.2% compared to the previous season (348.8 Mt), while China should increase its harvest by 1.0%, reaching 280.0 Mt. The European Union is expected to see an increase of 21.4% with 64.3 Mt, while Ukraine, with 24.5 Mt, will likely see a decrease of 9.3% (348.8 Mt).

• Brazil's production is expected to reach 129 Mt, a 2.3% decrease compared to the previous season, while Argentina's crop is expected to reach 54 Mt, a 54.3% increase compared to the previous season.

• World corn exports are forecast to increase by 12.0%, from 176.6 Mt in the 2022/23 season to 197.8 Mt in this new season, with the United States being the second largest exporter, reaching 53.3 Mt, an increase of 21.7% over the previous season.

• South America's exportable supply is expected to increase significantly in Argentina, with a 76.1% increase in this new season with 40.5 Mt, while Brazil is estimated to consolidate the same 55 Mt in the 2022/23 season.

• China is expected to import 23 Mt of corn, an increase of 27.8% compared to the previous season (18.0 Mt), while the European Union is expected to reduce its imports by 8.2% with 22.5 Mt.

• World ending stocks are expected to increase by 5.5% to 314.0 Mt. The United States stocks are expected to increase by 55.5%, while Brazil's and China's are expected to decrease by 16.3% and 0.5%, respectively.

Soybeans

• World soybean production for the 2023/24 season is expected to increase 11.1% over the previous season, from 369.6 Mt to 410.7 Mt.

• Estimates for South American crops show an increase of 4.5% for Brazil, which would reach 163 Mt, while Argentina is projected to increase by 92.0% with 48.0 Mt.

• Paraguay is expected to increase its production by 13.6% with respect to the 2022/23 season (8.8 Mt), reaching a crop of 10 Mt and returning to levels that were usual until the 2020/21 season.

• In this new report, the U.S. crop is estimated at 122.7 Mt, an increase of 5.5% compared to the 2022/23 season, when it reached 116.4 Mt.

• Export activity would be led by Brazil with 96.5 Mt, growing 3.8% compared to the previous season (93.0 Mt), while the United States would reach an export volume of 53.8 Mt, down 1.2% compared to last year's crop (54.4 Mt).

• Argentina is projected to export 4.6 Mt, which would mean an increase of 21.1% with respect to the 2022/23 season (3.8 Mt).

• China is expected to import 100 Mt, up 2.0% compared to the 2022/23 season (98.0 Mt).

• Ending stocks of soybeans are expected to increase by 21.7% globally to 123.3 Mt, supported by increases in stocks in the United States, Argentina, and Brazil.