Corn and soybeans: First projections from USDA for the 2023/2024 season

For this new season, USDA expects a significant increase in production, international trade, and final stocks globally. This would be supported by increased production in the United States and Brazil, as well as by the recovery of harvest levels in Argentina and the European Union. The increase in corn and soybean imports by China would be a key factor in the dynamics of the world market for these raw materials.

Highlights of the latest grain and oilseed estimates reports released by the USDA on May 12 are presented:

Corn

• World corn production for the new 2023/24 season is expected to reach 1219.6 million tons (Mt), an increase of 6.0% compared to the 2022/23 season (1150.2 Mt).

• For the United States, production is expected to be around 387.7 Mt, up 11.2% compared to the previous season (348.8 Mt), while China is forecast to increase its harvest by 1.0% to 280.0 Mt. The European Union is expected to increase by 21.4% with 64.3 Mt, while Ukraine, with 22.0 Mt, is expected to show a decrease of 18.5%.

• Brazil's production should reach 129 Mt, which represents a decrease of 0.8% compared to the previous season, while Argentina's crop should reach 54 Mt, an increase of 45.9% compared to the previous season.

• World corn exports are forecast to increase by 11.3%, from 175.4 Mt in the 2022/23 season to 195.3 Mt in this new season, with the United States being the second largest exporter of the grain, reaching 53.3 Mt, an increase of 18.3% over the previous season.

• The South American exportable supply is expected to show significant increases, increasing by 3.8% in this new season for Brazil with 55 Mt, while Argentina's exports are expected to increase by 62.0%, reaching 40.5 Mt.

• China is expected to import 23 Mt of corn, an increase of 27.8% compared to the previous season (18.0 Mt), while the European Union is expected to reduce its imports by 18.4% with 20.0 Mt.

• World ending stocks are expected to increase by 5.2% to 312.9 Mt. For the United States, stocks are expected to increase by 56.8%, while for Brazil, the European Union, and China, they are expected to decrease by 16.3%, 2.7%, and 0.5%, respectively.

Soybeans

• World soybean production for the 2023/24 season is expected to increase by 10.8% compared to the previous season, from 370.4 Mt to 410.6 Mt.
• Estimates for South American crops show an increase of 5.2% for Brazil, which would reach 163 Mt, while Argentina is projected to increase by 77.8% with 48.0 Mt.
• Paraguay is expected to increase its production by 13.6% with respect to the 2022/23 season (8.8 Mt), reaching a crop of 10 Mt, and returning to the levels that were usual until the 2020/21 season.
• In this new report, the U.S. crop is estimated at 122.7 Mt, an increase of 5.5% compared to the 2022/23 season, when it reached 116.4 Mt.
• Export activity should be led by Brazil with 96.5 Mt, increasing by 3.8% compared to the previous season (93.0 Mt), while the United States should reach an export volume of 53.8 Mt, representing a 2.0% decrease compared to the last harvest (54.8 Mt).
• Argentina is projected to export 4.6 Mt, which would mean an increase of 39.4% with respect to the 2022/23 season (3.3 Mt).
• China is expected to import 100 Mt, increasing by 2.0% compared to the 2022/23 season (98.0 Mt).
• Ending stocks of soybeans are forecast to increase by 21.2% globally, reaching 122.5 Mt, supported by increases in stocks in the United States, Argentina, and Brazil.