Updated USDA estimates for swine production in 2023

General outlook

• European Union pork production is projected to be 3% lower compared to the previous year. Increasing environmental regulations and weaker producer margins due to increased input costs will likely continue to stifle production. EU exports are forecast to decline 10% on lower exports to China, Japan, and South Korea as EU pork loses price competitiveness due to increasing input costs.

• Vietnam's production is forecast to increase by 6% on industry investments and continuing recovery from the impacts of African swine fever (ASF).

• Brazil's production is forecast 2% higher year over year as domestic demand and export opportunities remain strong due to competitive prices.

• China’s production is expected to marginally increase as consumer demand remains robust.

• Canada's shipments in 2023 are forecast 4% lower year over year. The closure of slaughter facilities and relatively high feed prices are expected to weigh on Canada’s pork production, lowering available supplies for export.

• China exports are forecast higher as the easing of border controls in Japan and Hong Kong is anticipated to stimulate demand from the hotel, restaurant, and institutional sector for processed pork products from China.

• U.S. pork production is forecast 1% higher year over year as the relatively strong growth in slaughter during the first quarter moderates during the year. U.S. exports are forecast slightly higher in 2023 with small increases to China, Japan, and South Korea, due to increasing U.S. competitiveness and declining exports from the European Union.

Global forecast

• World pork production for 2023 is expected to reach 114.3 million tons (Mt), representing a decrease of 0.2% with respect to the 2022 total (114.6 Mt).

• Global exports are forecast to fall by 0.1% compared to 2022, from 9.89 Mt to 9.88 Mt.

• Imports are expected to reach a volume of 10.6 Mt in 2023, representing a drop of 3.4% compared to the previous year (11.0 Mt).
• Apparent consumption is expected to grow by 0.2%, from 113.4 to 113.7 Mt.

Forecasts by continent

• Latin America is expected to see the highest regional growth, with production reaching 8.08 Mt, representing an increase of 2.4% with respect to 2022 (7.89 Mt). Likewise, the volume of exports should grow by 3.3%, reaching 1.89 Mt, while imports are forecast to decrease by 0.3% and apparent consumption to increase by 1.5%.

• Asia's production is expected to increase by 0.5%, reaching 63.4 Mt, thanks to the increase in domestic supply from China and Vietnam. On the other hand, imports are projected to increase by 0.1% to 5.7 Mt.

• For the Americas as a whole, production is expected to increase by 1.2% to 22.5 Mt. However, imports are expected to fall by 4.3% to 2.69 Mt, while exports are expected to grow by 0.4% to 6.14 Mt.

• Production on the European continent is expected to fall by 2.9% to 27.5 Mt. Likewise, exports are expected to fall by 9.2% to 4.2 Mt.

• Africa is expected to increase its production by 3.2% to 0.5 Mt, while Oceania is expected to decrease by 2.3% and reach a production volume very similar to that of Africa.

Top countries

• China is forecast to produce 55.5 Mt, which represents an increase of 0.2% with respect to 2022. An increase of 3.5% is estimated in import volumes, which would reach 2.2 Mt.

• Production in the European Union is expected to fall by 3.2% to 21.8 Mt, while exports are expected to reach 3.8 Mt, which represents a 10.3% drop compared to 2022. On the other hand, imports are estimated at 125,000 t, which represents an increase of 3.3% over the previous year.

• The United States is expected to increase its production by 1.4% to 12.4 Mt, and exports are expected to increase by 0.7% to 2.9 Mt.

• Japan is expected to position itself as the world's second-largest pork importer at 1.5 Mt, although its imports are expected to decrease by 3.5%.

• Brazil is expected to increase its production volume by 1.7%, reaching 4.4 Mt. Exports are also expected to reach 1.4 Mt, an increase of 5.4%.

• Mexico's production is estimated to increase 2.6% to approximately 1.6 Mt. It should maintain its position as the world's third-largest importer and the leading importer in Latin America, although its imports are expected to fall 1.6% this year to 1.27 Mt.