Corn and soybeans: Forecasts for the 2022/2023 season USDA - April 2023

Highlights of the latest grain and oilseed estimates reports released by the USDA on April 11 are presented:

Corn

• World corn production is expected to reach 1144.5 million tons (Mt), a 6.0% drop compared to the 2021/22 season (1217.0 Mt).

• For the United States, production would be around 348.8 Mt, down 8.9% with respect to the previous season (382.9 Mt), while China would increase its harvest by 1.7%, achieving 277.2 Mt. The European Union would see a 25.8% decrease with 53.0 Mt, while Ukraine, with 27.0 Mt, would see a decrease of 35.9%.

• For Brazil, the projection of 125 Mt remained unchanged, representing a 7.8% increase compared to the previous season, while for Argentina, production was again cut back sharply to only 37 Mt, representing a 25.3% decrease compared to the 2021/22 season.

• World corn exports would decrease by 15.5%, from 205.7 Mt in the 2021/22 season to 173.8 Mt in the new season. This would be explained by decreases in the European Union (-63.3%), the United States (-25.1%), Argentina (-27.3%), and Ukraine (-5.5%).

• South America's exportable supply showed significant changes, increasing by 3.6% for Brazil in this new season, with 50 Mt, while Argentina's exports would decrease by 27.3%, reaching only 25 Mt.

• China is expected to import 18 Mt of corn, down 17.7% from the previous season (21.9 Mt), while the European Union is expected to increase its imports by 23.8% with 24.5 Mt.

• Global ending stocks would fall by 3.8% to 295.3 Mt. Stocks in Ukraine, the European Union, Canada, the United States, and China would fall by 77.1%, 28.5%, 9.5%, 2.6%, and 0.9%, respectively, while in Brazil, Egypt, and Iran, stocks would grow by 83.1%, 15.4%, and 13.7%.

Soybeans

• World soybean production for the 2022/23 season would increase by 2.7% over the previous season, from 359.8 to 369.6 Mt.

• Estimates for South American crops show an increase of 18.0% for Brazil, which would reach 154 Mt, while Argentina is projected to fall by 38.5% with 27.0 Mt.

• Paraguay would increase its production by 139.1% with respect to the 2021/22 season (4.2 Mt), reaching a crop of 10 Mt, thus returning to the levels that were usual until the 2020/21 cycle.

• In this new report, the U.S. crop is expected to reach 116.4 Mt, which represents a 4.2% drop compared to the 2021/22 season, when it reached 121.5 Mt.

• The export activity would be led by Brazil with 92.7 Mt, growing by 17.2% compared to the previous season (79.1 Mt), while the United States would reach an export volume of 54.8 Mt, which represents a decrease of 6.6% compared to the last harvest (58.7 Mt).

• Argentina is projected to export 3.4 Mt, which would mean an increase of 18.8% with respect to the 2021/22 season (2.9 Mt).

• China would import 96 Mt, up 4.8% compared to the 2021/22 season (91.6 Mt).

• Ending stocks of the oilseed would increase by 0.6% at the global level, reaching 100.3 Mt. However, for the United States, Argentina, and the European Union, their stocks would fall by 23.4%, 24.3%, and 8.7% respectively, while for Brazil and China, they would increase by 18.7% and 12.4%.