Corn and soybean forecasts for the 2022/2023 season USDA - March 2023

Here are highlights from the latest grain and oilseed estimates reports released by the USDA on March 8:

Corn

• World corn production is expected to reach 1147.5 million tons (Mt), a 5.6% drop compared to the 2021/22 season (1216.0 Mt).

• United States production is estimated to reach 348.8 Mt, down 8.9% compared to the previous season (382.9 Mt), while China is forecast to increase its harvest by 1.7%, reaching 277.2 Mt. The European Union is expected to see a 23.6% decrease at 54.2 Mt, while Ukraine, with 27.0 Mt, is expected to see a 35.9% decrease.

• For Brazil, the projection of 125 Mt was maintained, which represents a 7.8% increase compared to the previous season, while for Argentina a sharp cut was again made, which would place production at just 40 Mt (the lowest in 5 years), representing a 19.2% decrease compared to the 2021/22 season.

• World corn exports are forecast to decrease by 15.1%, from 205.7 Mt in the 2021/22 season to 174.7 Mt in the new season. This would be explained by decreases in the European Union (-63.3%), the United States (-25.1%), Argentina (-18.6%), and Ukraine (-12.9%).

• South America's exportable supply showed significant changes, increasing by 3.1% for Brazil in this new season, with 50 Mt, while Argentina's exports are expected to decrease by 18.6%, reaching just 28 Mt.

• China is expected to import 18 Mt of corn, down 17.7% from the previous season (21.9 Mt), while the European Union is expected to increase its imports by 18.8% with 23.5 Mt.

• World ending stocks are expected to fall by 3.0% to 296.5 Mt. For Ukraine, the European Union, Canada, the United States, and China, stocks will fall by 53.0%, 26.2%, 9.5%, 2.6%, and 0.9%, respectively, while for Brazil, Egypt, and Iran, stocks will increase by 87.9%, 15.1%, and 13.7%.

Soybeans

• World soybean production for the 2022/23 season is expected to increase by 4.7% over the previous season, from 358.1 to 375.1 Mt.

• Estimates for South American crops indicate an increase of 18.1% for Brazil, which would reach 153 Mt, while Argentina is projected to see a 24.8% decrease to 33.0 Mt.

• Paraguay is expected to increase its production by 139.1% with respect to the 2021/22 season (4.2 Mt), reaching a crop of 10 Mt, and returning to the levels normally seen prior to the 2020/21 season.

• In this new report, the United States crop is projected at 116.4 Mt, a drop of 4.2% compared to the 2021/22 season, when it reached 121.5 Mt.

• Export activity would be led by Brazil with 92.7 Mt, growing by 17.2% compared to the previous season (79.1 Mt), while the United States should reach an export volume of 54.8 Mt, representing a 6.6% decrease compared to the last harvest (58.7 Mt).

• Argentina is projected to export 3.4 Mt, which would mean an increase of 18.8% with respect to the 2021/22 season (2.9 Mt).

• China is expected to import 96 Mt, an increase of 4.8% compared to the 2021/22 season (91.6 Mt).

• Ending stocks of the oilseed are expected to increase by 1.0% globally, reaching 100.0 Mt. However, for the United States, Argentina, and the European Union, stocks are expected to fall by 23.4%, 17.2%, and 7.4%, respectively, while for Brazil and China, ending stocks are expected to increase by 17.3% and 9.2%, respectively.