Updated USDA estimates for world pig farming in 2023

Graph 1. USDA forecasts for 2023

General context

• An increase in global pork production is expected due to higher production in China.

• China's domestic demand is expected to strengthen as a result of the lifting of restrictions under the zero COVID policy.

• Strong demand from Asian countries is expected to contribute to an increase in world pork exports, with the European Union, Brazil, and the United States as the main suppliers.

• World pork imports should increase and be supported by markets in China and the Philippines.

• Given the reduction of import tariffs for pork in the Philippines and that ASF continues to stifle local production, higher import volumes are forecast for this country.

• Forecasts for the other countries did not show significant changes.

Previsions by country

• Latin America is expected to show the highest regional growth, with production reaching 8.05 Mt, representing an increase of 2.5% with respect to 2022 (7.86 Mt). Likewise, the volume of exports should grow by 4.7%, reaching 1.9 Mt, while imports and apparent consumption should increase by 0.1% and 1.4%, respectively.

• Asia is expected to increase its production by 0.2%, reaching 62.4 Mt, thanks to the increase in domestic supply from China and Vietnam. Imports are projected to increase by 1.8% to 5.7 Mt.

• For the Americas as a whole, production is expected to increase by 1.8% to 22.6 Mt. Imports are expected to fall by 5.4% to 2.58 Mt, while exports are expected to increase by 1.0% to 6.2 Mt.

• Production on the European continent is expected to fall by 0.8% to 28.2 Mt. Likewise, exports are expected to fall by 5.2% to 4.3 Mt.

• Africa is expected to increase its production by 1.1% to 0.5 Mt, while Oceania is expected to decrease by the same amount and reach a volume similar to that of Africa.

Main producing countries

• China, which would account for 48.2% of world production, is projected to produce 55 Mt, the same volume that it is expected to have reached in 2022. An increase of 2.4% is estimated in the volume of imports, which would reach 2.1 Mt.

• The European Union's production is expected to decrease by 0.4%, reaching 22.6 Mt, while its exports are expected to reach 3.95 Mt, a 4.8% drop compared to 2022. On the other hand, imports are estimated at 145,000 t, which represents an increase of 20.8% over the previous year.

• The United States is expected to increase its production by 1.8% with 12.5 Mt, and a slight increase of 0.2% is expected in its exports, which will reach 2.9 Mt.

• Japan is expected to position itself as the world's second largest pork importer with 1.5 Mt, although imports would decrease by 2.6%.

• Brazil is expected to increase its production volume by 2.0%, reaching 4.4 Mt. Exports are also expected to reach 1.4 Mt, an increase of 3.9%.

• Mexico is expected to grow 4.6% in production, with an approximate production of 1.6 Mt. It will maintain its position as the third largest importer in the world and the largest in Latin America, despite the fact that its imports are estimated to fall 2.7% this year, reaching 1.24 Mt.