USDA corn and soybean projections for the 2022/2023 season – January 2023

Highlights of the latest grain and oilseed estimates reports released by the USDA on January 12 are presented:

Corn

• World corn production is expected to reach 1155.9 million tons (Mt), a 4.9% drop compared to the 2021/22 season (1214.9 Mt).

• United States production is expected to be around 348.8 Mt, down 8.9% with respect to the previous season (382.9 Mt), while China will increase its harvest by 1.7%, achieving 277.2 Mt. The European Union will see a 23.6% decrease with 54.2 Mt, while Ukraine, with 27.0 Mt, will see a decrease of 35.9%.

• There were significant cuts in production estimates for South American crops with respect to the December report. In fact, Brazil is now projected to grow by 7.8% with 125 Mt and Argentina by 5.1% with 52 Mt.

• World corn exports are expected to decrease by 12.7%, from 204 Mt in the 2021/22 season to 178.2 Mt in the new season. This would be explained by the decrease in exports from the European Union (-63.3%), Ukraine (-24%), and the United States (-22.0%), as well as the lower forecast for shipments from Brazil and Argentina.

• South America's exportable supply showed significant decreases with respect to the December report, increasing by just 1.1% for Brazil with 47 Mt, while Argentina's exports would increase by 7.0% with 38 Mt.

• China is expected to import 18 Mt of corn, down 17.7% from the previous season (21.9 Mt). The European Union and Malaysia will increase their imports by 8.7% and 3.3%, respectively.

• World ending stocks are expected to fall by 3.1% to 296.4 Mt. For India, the European Union, Canada, the United States, and China, stocks would fall by 32.7%, 26.2%, 20.4%, 9.8%, and 0.9%, respectively, while for Brazil, Egypt, Iran, and Ukraine, stocks would increase by 83.5%, 15.1%, 13.7%, and 5.9%.

Soybeans

• World soybean production for the 2022/23 season is forecast to increase by 8.4% over the previous season, from 358.1 Mt to 388 Mt.

• Estimates for South American crops show an increase of 18.1% for Brazil, which would reach 153 Mt, while Argentina is projected to increase by only 3.6% with 45.5 Mt, which is far from the 49.5 Mt forecast as of the December report.

• Paraguay would increase its production by 138.1% with respect to the 2021/22 season (4.2 Mt), reaching a crop of 10 Mt, returning to the levels that were usual until the 2020/21 season

• In this new report, the United States crop is projected at 116.4 Mt, a drop of 4.2% compared to the 2021/22 season, when it reached 121.5 Mt.

• Export activity will be led by Brazil with 91.0 Mt, up 15.0% compared to the previous season (79.1 Mt), while the United States will reach an export volume of 54.2 Mt, down 7.8% compared to last year's crop (58.7 Mt).

• Argentina's exports are projected to be 2 Mt lower than the December report with 5.7 Mt, which would mean an increase of 99.2% with respect to the 2021/22 season (2.9 Mt).

• China is expected to import less soybeans compared to the previous report (98 Mt), reaching 96 Mt and up 4.8% compared to the 2021/22 season (91.6 Mt).

• Final stocks of the oilseed are expected to increase by 5.4% globally, reaching 103.5 Mt. However, for the United States, Iran, Argentina, and China, stocks are expected to decrease by 23.4%, 11.4%, 1.9%, and 0.2%, respectively, while for Paraguay, Canada, Brazil, and the European Union, stocks are expected to increase by 160.1%, 52.1%, 24.8%, and 8.7%.