Corn and soybeans: Projections for the 2022/2023 USDA marketing year - December 2022

These are the highlights from the latest grain and oilseed estimates reports released by the USDA on December 9:

Corn

• World corn production is expected to reach 1161.9 million tons (Mt), a 4.5% decrease compared to the 2021/22 season (1216.9 Mt). This would be due to lower production in producing countries such as the United States, the European Union, and Ukraine.

• United States production should be around 353.8 Mt, down 7.6% from the previous season (382.9 Mt), while China is expected to increase its harvest by 0.5% to 274 Mt. The European Union is expected to see a 23.6% decrease with 54.2 Mt, while Ukraine, with 27.0 Mt, should see a decrease of 35.9%.

• Production estimates for the South American crops were unchanged from the November report, with an 8.6% increase for Brazil (126 Mt) and a 6.8% increase for Argentina (55 Mt).

• World exports of corn are expected to decrease by 10.3%, from 202.5 Mt in the 2021/22 season to 181.6 Mt in the new season. This would be explained by the decrease in exports from Ukraine (-35.1%), the European Union (-63.3%), and the United States (-16.0%).

• South America's exportable supply remains unchanged from the November report, increasing by 5.6% for Brazil with 47 Mt, while Argentina's exports are expected to grow by 12.3% with 41 Mt.

• China is expected to import 18 Mt of corn, down 17.7% from the previous season (21.9 Mt). The European Union, Vietnam, Malaysia, and Peru should increase their imports by 8.7%, 5.4%, 3.3%, and 7.7%, respectively.

• World ending stocks are expected to fall by 2.8% to 298.4 Mt. For India, the European Union, Canada, the United States, and China, stocks will fall by 33.9%, 26.2%, 20.4%, 8.7%, and 1.4%, respectively, while for Brazil, Ukraine, Egypt, and Iran, stocks will grow by 66.6%, 35.3%, 15.5%, and 13.7%, respectively.

Soybeans

• World soybean production for the 2022/23 season is expected to increase by 10.0% compared to the previous season, from 355.6 to 391.2 Mt.

• The estimates for South American crops continue to indicate an increase of 19.7% for Brazil, which is expected to reach 152 Mt, while Argentina's production is expected to increase by 12.8% to 49.5 Mt.

• Paraguay should increase its production by 138.1% with respect to the 2021/22 season (4.2 Mt), reaching a crop of 10 Mt and returning to typical levels prior to the 2020/21 season.

• In this new report, the U.S. crop is projected at 118.3 Mt, a 2.7% decrease compared to the 2021/22 season when it reached 121.5 Mt.

• Export activity should be led by Brazil with 89.5 Mt, a 13.1% increase compared to the previous season (79.1 Mt), while the United States should reach an export volume of 55.7 Mt, which represents a 5.2% decrease compared to the last harvest (58.7 Mt).

• Argentina is projected to export 7.7 Mt, which would represent an increase of 169.1% with respect to the 2021/22 season (2.9 Mt).

• China is expected to import 98 Mt, an increase of 7.0% compared to the 2021/22 season (91.6 Mt).

• Final stocks of the oilseed are expected to increase by 7.5% globally, reaching 102.7 Mt. However, stocks for Iran, India, and China are expected to fall by 19.6%, 11.4%, 0.9%, and 0.9%, respectively, while for Paraguay, Canada, Ukraine, Brazil, and the European Union, stocks should increase by 339.8%, 52.1%, 41.7%, 33.2%, and 8.7%, respectively.