Corn and soybeans: November projections for the 2022/2023 season

Here are highlights from the latest grain and oilseed estimates reports released by the USDA on November 9:

Corn

• World corn production is expected to reach 1168.4 million tons (Mt), a 4.0% drop compared to the 2021/22 season (1217.5 Mt). This would be due to the decrease in producing countries such as the United States, the European Union, and Ukraine.

• For the United States, production is forecast at around 353.8 Mt, down 7.6% compared to the previous season (382.9 Mt), while China will increase its harvest by 0.5%, reaching 274 Mt. The European Union will see a 22.8% decrease with 54.8 Mt, while Ukraine, with 31.5 Mt, will see a decrease of 25.2%.

• Production estimates for the South American crops were unchanged with respect to the October report, with an 8.6% increase expected for Brazil (126 Mt) and a 6.8% increase for Argentina (55 Mt).

• World exports are forecast to decrease by 9.5% from 201.8 Mt in the 2021/22 season to 182.7 Mt. This would be explained by the decrease in exports from Ukraine (-42.6%), the European Union (-55.0%), and the United States (-13.0%).

• The Brazilian exportable supply remains unchanged with respect to the October report, increasing by 5.6% to 47 Mt, while Argentina's exports are expected to increase by 12.3% to 41 Mt.

• China is expected to import 18 Mt of corn, down 17.7% from the previous season (21.9 Mt). Vietnam, Iran, and Mexico will increase their imports by 8.7%, 4.7%, and 0.7%, respectively.

• World ending stocks are forecast to decrease by 2.2% to 300.8 Mt. For India, the European Union, the United States, and China, stocks are expected to fall by 34.6%, 26.1%, 14.2%, and 1.4%, respectively, while for Ukraine and Brazil, stocks should grow by 115.9% and 66.6%, respectively.

Soybeans

• World soybean production for the 2022/23 season is expected to increase by 9.8% over the previous season, from 355.6 to 390.5 Mt.

• Estimates for South American crops indicate an increase of 19.7% for Brazil, which is expected to reach 152 Mt, while Argentina is expected to increase by 12.8% with a production of 49.5 Mt.

• In this new report, the U.S. crop is projected at 118.3 Mt, which would represent a 2.7% drop compared to the 2021/22 season, when it reached 121.5 Mt.

• The export activity would be led by Brazil with an estimated 89.5 Mt, increasing by 12.8% compared to the previous season (79.4 Mt), while the United States should reach an export volume of 55.7 Mt, a figure that represents a 5.2% decrease compared to the last harvest (58.7 Mt).

• Argentina is projected to export 7.2 Mt, which would mean an increase of 151.7% with respect to the 2021/22 season (2.9 Mt).

• China is expected to import 98 Mt, an increase of 7.0% compared to the 2021/22 season (91.6 Mt).

• However, for the United States, India, Iran, and China, their stocks are expected to fall by 19.6%, 0.9%, 17.7%, and 0.9%, respectively, while for Brazil and Ukraine, stocks are expected to increase by 33.8% and 27.8%, respectively.