Corn and soybeans: USDA Projections for the 2022/2023 marketing year - October 2022

Highlights of the latest grain and oilseed estimates reports released by the USDA on October 12:

Corn

• World corn production is expected to reach 1168.7 million tons (Mt), a 4.0% drop compared to the 2021/22 season (1217.3 Mt). This would be due to lower production in countries such as the United States, the European Union, and Ukraine.
• In the United States, production is estimated to reach 353 Mt, down 7.8% with respect to the previous season (382.9 Mt), while China is expected to see an increase in its harvest by 0.5%, reaching 274 Mt. The European Union is expected to see a decrease of 20.8% at 56.2 Mt, while Ukraine, with 31.5 Mt, would see a decrease of 25.2%.
• Production estimates for the South American crops were unchanged with respect to the September report, with an 8.6% increase for Brazil (126 Mt) and a 6.8% increase for Argentina (55 Mt).
• World corn exports are expected to decrease 9.8%, from 202.9 Mt in the 2021/22 season to 183.0 Mt in the new season. This would be explained by the decrease in exports from Ukraine (-42.6%), the European Union (-55.0%), and the United States (-13.0%).
• South America's exportable supply remained unchanged from the September report, increasing by 5.6% for Brazil with 47 Mt and by 9.3% for Argentina with 41 Mt.
• China is expected to import 18 Mt of corn, 18.2% lower than in the previous season (22 Mt). Vietnam, Iran, and Mexico are expected to increase their imports by 14.1%, 4.7%, and 1.1%, respectively.
• World ending stocks of corn are expected to fall by 1.9% to 301.2 Mt. In India, the European Union, the United States, and China, stocks are expected to fall by 34.5%, 26.1%, 14.9%, and 1.4%, respectively.

Soybeans

• World soybean production for the 2022/23 season is expected to increase by 9.9% compared to the previous season, from 355.7 to 391.0 Mt.
• Estimates for South American crops indicate an increase of 19.7% for Brazil, which is expected to reach 152 Mt, while Argentina is expected to increase by 15.9% with a production of 51 Mt.
• In this new report, the U.S. crop is projected to reach 117.4 Mt, a drop of 3.4% compared to the 2021/22 season when it reached 121.5 Mt.
• Export activity will be led by Brazil with an estimated 89.5 Mt, a 12.5% increase compared to the previous season (79.6 Mt), while the United States is expected to reach an export volume of 55.7 Mt, which represents a 5.2% decrease compared to last year's crop (58.7 Mt).
• Argentina is projected to export 7 Mt, which would mean an increase of 150% with respect to the 2021/22 season (2.8 Mt).
• China is expected to import 98 Mt, an 8.9% increase compared to the 2021/22 season (90 Mt).
• Ending soybean stocks are expected to increase 8.8% globally, reaching 100.5 Mt. However, in the United States, India, Iran, and China stocks are expected to decrease 27.0%, 0.9%, 17.7%, and 0.9% respectively.