USDA forecasts for world pork production and trade in 2023

According to estimates published by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) in its report "Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade", an increase in world production and a decrease in exports are forecast, both values marked by China.

Production

Global production is forecast to rise 1% in 2023 to 111.0 million tons as production in China increases. China's pork production is expected to grow 2% as the sector continues to recover from the impacts of African swine fever (ASF). High feed costs in China are expected to reduce incentives to over-fatten hogs. The United States, Brazil, and Mexico are also forecast to expand production, more than offsetting declines by other major producers including the EU and the United Kingdom (UK).

Rising feed, energy costs, and environmental restrictions will dampen EU production.

U.S. production is forecast 1% higher in 2023 to 12.4 million tons on gradually increasing pig crops and heavier weights.

Producers in the UK face high feed costs and weaker demand for domestic pork.

Brazil and Mexico continue to expand their hog sectors to meet growing domestic demand, partly driven by consumers seeking alternatives to higher-priced beef, and stronger export demand in several key countries.

Production in Vietnam continues to rebound as the management of ASF has protected the sector from large-scale outbreaks.

Exports and imports

Global exports are forecast to fall 2% to 10.5 million tons in 2023 as China imports weaken for a second consecutive year.

Despite persistent issues with ASF, Philippines pork imports are also forecast to decline due to the end of policies favoring imports in 2022; the temporary increase in pork quota volumes ended in May 2022 and reduced tariffs were extended through the end of 2022.

UK pork imports rise as pre-pandemic consumption trends are expected to return, shifting purchases from retail to food service, shifting demand for domestically produced pork to imported pork.

U.S. exports are forecast lower in 2023 on easing demand by key importers such as Mexico and China.

Forecasts for major global players

• China, which would account for 47% of world production, is expected to produce 52 million tons (Mt) of pork, representing an increase of 2.0% with respect to 2022 (51 Mt). A 5.6% decrease in imports is estimated, falling from 1.8 Mt to 1.7 Mt.
• The European Union's production is expected to fall 0.4% to 22.6 Mt, while its exports are expected to be 3.8 Mt, down 3.6% compared to 2022.
• The United States is forecast to increase its production by 0.7% to reach 12.4 Mt, although its exports will fall by 1.7%, reaching only 2.8 Mt.
• Japan is expected to be the world's second-largest pork importer with 1.5 Mt, although its imports are expected to decrease 1.6%.
• Brazil is forecast to increase its production by 1.6%, reaching 4.4 Mt. Exports are also expected to increase by 2.7% to 1.3 Mt.
• Mexico should grow 4.6% in production, with an approximate 1.6 Mt, and maintain its position as the world's third largest importer, despite the fact that this volume is estimated to decrease by 0.8% and reach 1.24 Mt.