Projections for the 2022/2023 corn and soybean crop year to September 2022

Economics and Market Intelligence Department 333 Latin America, with data from: USDA | United States. https://apps.fas.usda.gov/

23-Sep-2022 (3 years 8 months 15 days ago)

<p>Source: USDA. WASDE. September 12, 2022. Figures in millions of tons.</p>

Here are the highlights from the latest grain and oilseed estimates reports released by the USDA on September 12:

Corn

World corn production is expected to reach 1172.6 million tons (Mt), a 3.9% drop compared to the 2021/22 season (1219.8 Mt). This would be due to lower production in the United States, the European Union, and Ukraine.
United States production is forecast to be around 354.2 Mt, down 7.7% from the previous season (383.9 Mt), while China will increase its crop by 0.5% to 274 Mt. The European Union will decrease by 17.2% with 58.8 Mt, while Ukraine, with 31.5 Mt, will see a decrease of 25.2%.
Production estimates for the South American crops remained unchanged from the August report, with an 8.6% increase of 126 Mt for Brazil and a 3.8% increase of 55 Mt for Argentina.
World corn exports are expected to fall by 9.7%, from 203.3 Mt in the 2021/22 season to 183.6 Mt in the new season. This would be largely due to the decline in exports from Ukraine (-50.0%), the European Union (-53.4%), and the United States (-8.1%).
South America's exportable supply remained unchanged from the August report, increasing by 5.6% for Brazil with 47 Mt and by 5.1% for Argentina with 41 Mt.
China is expected to import 18 Mt of corn, down 21.7% compared to the previous season (23 Mt). Vietnam, Iran, the European Union, and Mexico will increase their imports by 16.3%, 11.8%, 2.7%, and 1.1%, respectively.
Final stocks are expected to fall by 2.4% worldwide, to 304.5 Mt. For the European Union, the United States, and Russia, stocks are expected to fall by 23.8%, 20.01%, and 16.2%, respectively.

World soybean production for the 2022/23 season is expected to increase by 10.3% over the previous season, from 353.2 Mt to 389.8 Mt.
Estimates for South American crops remain unchanged with respect to the August report. The Brazilian crop is expected to reach 149 Mt, an increase of 18.3% with respect to the previous crop cycle (126 Mt), while Argentina is expected to increase by 15.9% with a production of 51 Mt.
In this new report, the U.S. crop is projected at 119.2 Mt, a drop of 1.3% compared to the 2021/22 season when it reached 120.7 Mt.
Brazil will lead the export activity with 89 Mt, an 11.3% increase compared to the previous season (80 Mt), while the United States is expected to reach an export volume of 56.7 Mt, which represents a 2.8% decrease compared to last year's crop (58.4 Mt).
China is expected to import 97 Mt, up 7.8% compared to the 2021/22 season.
Final stocks of soybeans are forecast to increase by 10.3% globally, reaching 98.9 Mt. However, for the United States and China, their stocks are expected to fall by 16.7% and 0.9%, respectively.