U.S. pork exports in 2021 and projections for 2022

Last week we attended a Webinar hosted by the Pork Checkoff portal titled "U.S. Pork Exports & Market Outlook," which outlined U.S. pork export performance in 2021, as well as some projections for 2022 for the pork industry.

Below is the key information provided by Brett Stuart, Global Economist at Agritrends:

U.S. export highlights in 2021

• Record export value: USD $7.8 billion, +6% (includes pork and offal).
• Record volume of exports to Mexico: 864,948 mt, 27% more than in the previous year, worth USD $1.6 billion (+46%).

Forecasts

• Pork production in China is expected to reach 36 million tons (mt) and imports to reach 4.9 mt.
• US exports in 2022 are expected to reach 7.2 billion pounds (3.26 mt).
• Exports to Latin American countries with an FTA in force will reach almost USD $900 million.
• Given an increase of USD $37 billion in global GDP over the next decade, this would generate an additional consumption of 78 million tons of meat (of which 23 million tons would be pork), i.e., between 2020 and 2030 meat consumption is expected to grow by approximately 37%.

Considerations

• Fading impacts of COVID due to global immunity from increased vaccination rates.
• The global reduction in sow census from 2022 onwards, which will lead to higher prices and demand globally.
• Mexico remains a solid growth market.
• Slower LATAM export growth momentum.
• ASF not spreading in North America.

In addition, Dr. Steve R. Meyer, Ph. D., an economist with Partners for Production Ag, presented the following topics to consider in the U.S. market:

Key points

• As for ASF, Haiti represents the greatest risk, while the situation in Europe and Italy is of great interest.
• Domestic consumer demand remains strong. Wholesale demand, which declined in the fourth quarter, is recovering.
• Production costs are very high and continue their upward trend.
• Packer operating capacity remains a key issue for the pork industry markets.