World cereal production expected to lag behind global consumption despite hitting an all-time high

World cereal output in 2021 is seen on course to hit an all-time record of 2 800 million tonnes, but that is less than the anticipated consumption requirements in 2021/22 marketing season, according to new projections in FAO’s latest Cereal Supply and Demand Brief.

FAO now anticipates 776.7 million tonnes of wheat to be harvested in 2021, with expected higher yields in Eastern Europe and Australia offsetting weather and planting-driven output drops foreseen in Canada and the Russian Federation. The forecast for global production of coarse grains is now pegged at 1 504 million tonnes, with global sorghum and barley harvests rising faster than that for maize. World rice production is foreseen at 50 million tonnes, a new record, primarily reflecting more buoyant expectations from India’s main crop.

At the same time, world cereal utilization in 2021/22 is now forecast at 2 811 million tonnes, up 1.8 percent from the previous season, led by an anticipated significant increase in the use of wheat for livestock feed, a trend driven in part by high prices of coarse grains.

Consequently, the 2021/22 world cereal stocks-to-use ratio is expected to stand at 28.4 percent, down from 29.2 percent in the previous year, but still indicating an overall comfortable level.

FAO’s latest forecast for 2021/22 world trade in cereals points to a 0.3 percent year-on-year contraction to 473.2 million tonnes, led mostly by lower volumes foreseen for barley and maize trade.