ASF Vietnam: How to predict the future without knowing how many sows were destroyed?

African swine fever (ASF) has forced the country to destroy over 5.9 million pigs, accounting for 9% of the country's pigs by weight (341,000 tons).

Sows are the future of the industry's production. Because there is no exact statistic of how many sows were destroyed, the impact of the disease on supply and demand must be assessed based on the two simulation scenarios created by IPSARD.

Scenario 1- if approximately 10% of sows were destroyed (580,000 head)

• domestic pork supply would be reduced by 20%
• volume of imported pork would increase to 7,100 tons (+29.5%)
• domestic pork consumption would decrease by 14.6%
• pork production would be reduced to 3.15 million tons

Scenario 2 - if approximately 20% of sows were destroyed (1,160,000 head).

• domestic pork supply would be reduced by 35%
• volume of imported pork would increase to 8,900 tons (+60%).
• domestic pork consumption would decrease by 25%
• pork production would be reduced to 2.55 million tons