Global Animal Protein Outlook 2020: Seeking Opportunities in an Uncertain World

Global summary

Uncertainties

• African swine fever (ASF) overwhelms the 2020 outlook – as it did in 2019 – and will pull down overall growth and bring uncertainty to all markets.
• Aquaculture and poultry will lead production growth in 2020, beef stable, and wild-catch seafood in decline. These changes are minor compared with the production decline in pork.
• Trade disputes and issues causing uncertainty for global animal protein, with the US-China trade war the most apparent.
• Sustainability is slightly less prominent issue, but still important, as it will shape the growth of animal protein production and consumption through the 2020s.

Opportunities

• Continued recovery from ASF.
• Winning on sustainability by harnessing supply chain and moving ahead of market signals.
• Investing to secure ongoing trade flows which can reduce uncertainty and secure continuous market access.

Regional Outlooks

North America

• Production for all species expected to rise in 2020- led by pork, followed by poultry and beef. Domestic consumption will grow but exports will still need to increase to manage growth.

Europe

• Poultry and pork set to rise, pork driven by export opportunities. Beef expected to decline in response to lower consumption.

China

• ASF dominates outlook, pork production to continue to decline in 2020. Production of other species set to grow due to pork shortage and high prices.

Brazil

• All species expect production growth driven by export opportunities and improving domestic demand.

South-East Asia

• ASF expected to spread further. Poultry set to rise strongly. Beef production steady but imports on the rise.

Australia and New Zealand

• Australia's beef production down, lamb stable with firm prices for both. New Zealand's beef and lamb production to rise with favorable prices.