Wheat, corn production expected to increase while consumption remains steady, oilseed, rapeseed to contract

Worldwide wheat and maize production is expected to increase in 2019. On the consumption side, per capita food use of all three cereals is forecast to keep pace and even exceed population growth, according to FAO.

Global oilseed production, meanwhile, is anticipated to contract for the first time in three years, largely due to expectations of a contraction in soybean plantings and lower yields in the United States of America as well as weaker prospects for rapeseed in Canada and the European Union.

• Wheat: Global wheat supply is forecast to recover in 2019/20, as reflected in persistent low international prices since the start of this year. At around 765.0 million tonnes, the latest FAO forecast for world wheat production in 2019 confirms the earlier projection of a strong rebound from 2018 to a new record high. Total wheat utilization in 2019/20 is set to reach 759.5 million tonnes, 1.5 percent higher than in 2018/19. Based on the latest production and utilization forecasts for 2019/20, global wheat inventories could climb to almost 275 million tonnes, the second highest level on record. If realized, stocks would be up 1.9 percent from their opening levels
• Coarse grains: The global market of coarse grains in 2019/20 is set to tighten for a second consecutive season, despite an anticipated production recovery from the 2018 slump. Total production of coarse grains is forecast to reach at least 1 425 million tonnes in 2019, the second highest level on record, mostly underpinned by an increase in barley production (of 13.4 million tonnes). Coarse grain total utilization in 2019/20 is expected to remain close to the 2018/19 level as strong growth in barley utilization, increasing by almost 5 percent from 2018/19, is likely to be countered by declining sorghum consumption, while maize use is expected to remain stable. With consumption outweighing overall supplies for a second consecutive season, coarse grain inventories are forecast to fall again in 2019/20 (by 4 percent).
• Oilseeds: After reaching an all-time high in 2018/19, global oilseed production is anticipated to contract for the first time since 2015/16, mostly reflecting expected declines in soybean and rapeseed outputs that would outweigh foreseen gains in other oilcrops. Soybean production could fall short of last season’s record level. On the demand side, global meal utilization is forecast to resume growth, albeit timidly – after being severely affected by the outbreaks of African Swine Fever (ASF) in 2018/19.